Replies • 243

hirschy19 said:

The biggest dick move (by valve) has to be that Bots who offer cards for keys, still remain operational. Except now their "customers" will buy keys in store by mistake or habit to trade in for cards, only to figure out that they can't actually be traded.  I like to see how the warning text in the CS:GO store looks, or even if there is a warning.

 

This did happen a couple of time where Valve restricted an aspect of the market without warning, prompting people taking advantage of bots that their owners still aren't aware of the changes.

hirschy19 said:

Let's be honest. This move is just last minute preparation for their holiday sale, where buying keys and reselling them in the market was eligible for sale bonuses, just like normal store purchases. Apparently this will still be the case this year, except that people can't resell these keys right away.

I still believe the overall reason for this is for Valve to establish a legal market of items that will be within the laws of digital gambling that might be established in the close or far future. Many of the governments in Europe are pushing for laws restricting the market for microtransactions, laws in which Valve will have to abide by eventually. Instead of Valve being caught out of nowhere and making sudden changes of their entire market possibly causing a lot of issues with their userbase, they are preemptively cracking down their market so it can already be established in the future when digital gambling laws will be passed, as they restrict market features gradually like they are doing it now, instead of suddenly.

hirschy19 said:

It's still hard to imagine why anyone would pay more than store price for the key ultimately. For traders it may be worth slightly more because they can sell these keys on their own websites for real currency, cashing out their steam wallet funds for real money. How big of a hit they are willing to take for this remains to be seen.  1.5x? so about half?

Just don't believe this horseshit about artificial scarcity, cut off supply and collectors items. Collectors have to be the dumbest people, so while i wouldn't put it past them to collect keys, it's hard to imagine them resisting to use the key to open crates or do so accidentally. 

That's how i made money on steam, on the base of people that don't know how to spend their money better, where they spend them on a digital item that has no use whatsoever. The appeal of these keys is that they are marketable and tradable, that in itself gives them value. The increase of price is already seen everywhere (as of now):

The CS GO Case Key went from 2€ to 20€:

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/730/CS%3AGO%20Case%20Key

CS GO Capsule key, from 1€ to 12€:

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/730/CS%3AGO%20Capsule%20Key

I do not see a scenario where these keys will go down in price, other than various short burst instances of people with lots of keys dumping large amount of supplies of them on the market.

But this is it, the supply is completely cut off. These no longer have an infinite resource to circulate on the market. Their numbers will only go down as months and years go by. This looks like a perfect opportunity to invest. Long term investing over the span of months/years is the safest way to make money, and unless something new happen on the market that prompts these keys prices to change (which might, but such is the risk of investing) then all i see them in the future is having outrageously high prices, more than myself and yourself are comfortable to ever justify spending money on, but also enough for us to know that there will be people out there who will be spending money on these keys.

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Sulimen said:

But this is it, the supply is completely cut off. These no longer have an infinite resource to circulate on the market. Their numbers will only go down as months and years go by. This looks like a perfect opportunity to invest. Long term investing over the span of months/years is the safest way to make money, and unless something new happen on the market that prompts these keys prices to change (which might, but such is the risk of investing) then all i see them in the future is having outrageously high prices, more than myself and yourself are comfortable to ever justify spending money on, but also enough for us to know that there will be people out there who will be spending money on these keys.

Whenever you reach the conclusion, that there isn't any other way but UP, you have to be missing something. I'm bad at predicting things, for the simple reason that everybody is bad at predicting. And a market that narrows and shrinks becomes even more unpredictable. (There is more opportunity in such volatile times, it has to be said.)

This move of splitting items into marketable / non-marketable is kind of unprecedented AFAIK. Who could have seen this coming? Then again, Valve did catch the free-fall of gem prices. They are not afraid to make Non-marketable or convertible inventory trash, just to stabilize the market. This (becoming inventory trash) is the end-of-life prospect for the digital item cycle of boom and bust.

So why would anybody want to pay more for a key, unless he want's to sell it outside of steam or they speculate on the price only ever increasing. You think demand will remain strong even though these things now are unreasonably overpriced?

I don't just want to insult collectors, I'm genuinely curious who will be the one in the end left holding the bag and having payed the most, I'm thinking the last of the speculators.

Having never touched CS:GO, i don't know why are there are 27 keys. What is so special about the "CS:GO Case key", is it just the most generic one? It already came down quite a bit.

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hirschy19 said:

Whenever you reach the conclusion, that there isn't any other way but UP, you have to be missing something. I'm bad at predicting things, for the simple reason that everybody is bad at predicting. And a market that narrows and shrinks becomes even more unpredictable. (There is more opportunity in such volatile times, it has to be said.)

This move of splitting items into marketable / non-marketable is kind of unprecedented AFAIK. Who could have seen this coming? Then again, Valve did catch the free-fall of gem prices. There are not afraid to make Non-marketable or convertible inventory trash, just to stabilize the market. This (becoming inventory trash) is the end-of-life prospect for the digital item cycle of boom and bust.

So why would anybody want to pay more for a key, unless he want's to sell it outside of steam or they speculate on the price only ever increasing. You think demand will remain strong even though these things now are unreasonably overpriced?

I don't just want to insult collectors, I'm genuinely curious who will be the one in the end left holding the bag and having payed the most, I'm thinking the last of the speculators.

Having never touched CS:GO, i don't know why are there are 27 keys. What is so special about the "CS:GO Case key", is it just the most generic one? It already came down quite a bit.

I mean it worked for me so far... obviously just saying "It can only go UP" is not correct, as there will be interferences and factors that affects the rise. As i said in the article, the demand of the keys is also almost non-existent now due to the fact that they will no longer be items to be used for opening cases (except for rare instances i guess where people don't know any better).

So the CS GO case key was only 90-100 in number at the time of me making the article and my post above, the capsule key was only 50 or so. One of the other interference is that there are now 400 of those CS GO case keys because people with lots of keys dumped them all at once in hopes of making some money. If there is no interference with the supply of keys on the market (which there will be in the future), the number of them is simply too small to go down in price. There are 15 million steam users logged in every day. Obviously a bit inflated if you take out the bots, alts and people who don't trade. There are still quite a lot of collectors out there, as baffling as their habit is.

If it's just using your gut feeling in predicting which does more impact to its price, like:

- The now non-existent demand of keys for using them on crates.

- The scarcity of the keys, prompting them to become collector items or maybe contraband items in which fraudulent markets could manipulate its price. You also cannot display non-marketable/non-tradable items on your profile.

I went with the 2nd option in thinking it will have more impact on its price than the 1st, in which the impact is a higher price down the road. There are TF2 items in which are ludicrously high value simply because they are just rare. 

1 single scrap metal

https://backpack.tf/stats/Unique/Scrap%20Metal/Tradable/Craftable/0

is 0.11 of a refined. 1 refined is 0.04$. So just super cheap currency.

But make it blue?

https://backpack.tf/stats/Vintage/Scrap%20Metal/Tradable/Craftable/0

They are 333 keys, which like 700$ or something. Why? Why would someone buy that? It has no use in game, it is not a skin to be applied ingame for something, it just a useless pile of metal that is literally blue instead of yellow.

There are so many instances of TF2 items having no business being this high value. Yet they are, for simple reasons because they have a different color, or maybe because they have a different text, or a unique attribute, even if useless. People are willing to spend money impulsively, partly because (other than being wealthy, low age, parents credit card or being financially irresponsible) quite a lot of money on steam are not labor money made via a job, they are money made by tradings as a hobby. You would be surprised on how detachable they are with money from trading compared to money made out of real life labor. Of course many of the rare items are rare and expensive because they manifested as bugs out of Valve's mistake. But then again is it less outrageous to think people are willing to spend 700$ for a simple bugged and useless item, compared to a few tens of $ for a key that will only be a few in numbers in the future. I don't expect them to become hundreds of dollars, 30 or even 20 is enough.

 

I obviously went with my gut feeling in thinking that they will prove more valuable as time goes simply as souvenirs, but also due to me being reasonably accommodated with the volatile climate on steam. This ain't me stating facts here, indeed we can't know the future. Could there be interferences like Valve potentially restricting something or destabilizing the market? Sure, but like we both said, such is the volatility of the market making it so unpredictable.

 

Of course being a gut feeling, i also think their upside is limited, as the price could also potentially crash due to their demand being non-existent, which is why i only bought a few of them, because there are still a ton of keys left in people's inventories, so i expect quite a lot of supply to be dumped as time goes by. Hardly any loss for me if it doesn't go well (only spent 1.70 euros for 10 keys and 6 euros for 4 keys) . This of course won't manifest until months/years later, if it will even manifest in the first place. Compared to most of my investments on steam, this is indeed on the iffy side for me.

edited

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